Turning Point for Housing Market? Key Drivers Shift from Supply to Demand

Many homebuyers are insulating themselves to a higher rate environment by locking in at historically low rates. For homeowners with a mortgage coming up for renewal, most face a lower rate today relative to the discounted rate available 1, 3 and 5 years ago. The combination of moderately higher interest rates and slowing job growth will likely dampen home sales later this year and into 2014. Meanwhile, increased supply should limit price gains. However, the risk of a large price correction nationally remains low barring a major adverse shock such as a sharp rise in unemployment.
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Price Appreciation Becoming More Widespread – In August, 123 of the 146 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) covered by realtor.com registered a year-over-year increase in their median list price, with 78 markets registering an increase of 5 percent or more. Of the 18 markets reporting a list price decline, only 11 markets had a year-over-year list price decline of one percent or more, and only three markets had a list price decline of 5 percent or more. By contrast, the number of markets reporting year over year median prices lower than they were last year was 31 in July. Local Market Highlights: Inventory The following MSAs saw a significant decline in inventory: Melbourne, Fla.: -30 percent Sacramento, Calif.: -26 percent Stockton, Calif.: -31 percent Median Age The median age of inventory increased across the board in 130 of 146 MSAs. The three biggest gainers were: Oakland, Calif: +25 percent Denver: +26 percent Seattle: +25 percent Median List Price The nationwide median list price had no significant gains or losses, but the two markets of greatest change were: Highest gain was 6.53 percent for Corpus Christi, Texas Lowest decline was -8 percent for Jersey City, N.Y. The majority of markets covered by realtor.com appear to be ending the 2013 home buying season on a positive note, with more balanced inventories, shorter time on market, and higher listing prices compared to one year ago. However, some markets traditionally focused in the industrial sector continue to struggle due to weak local economies examples include markets in the Carolinas, Philadelphia and New Jersey.
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Carney warns of UK ‘false dawn’, overheating housing market

“If recovery were to falter, if additional stimulus were to be required, we would consider whether to provide additional stimulus,” he said. “Our job is to click here! make sure that (the recovery is) not another false dawn that we saw a few years earlier, and to make sure that as soon as possible, this economy reaches a form of sustained velocity so that it can sustain higher interest rates and continue to grow,” he added. Has Mark Carney inherited a UK recovery?
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